Par for the course.
The average net loss for Presidents is 28 seats in the House and four in the Senate.
The only question is will Obama break a record? In 1946 and 1994 respectively, Harry Truman and Bill Clinton lost 54 seats in the House and 12 and eight in the Senate.
The interesting thing for two term Presidents - Truman, Clinton and Ronald Reagan - they usually (with George W. Bush and Dwight D. Eisenhowser being the exceptions) improve their mid-term gains during their second term.
Will Obama be so lucky?
So... we're assuming Obama wins re-election or we assume he's winning re-election for the purposes of speculation?
ReplyDeleteI doubt Dems will lose 54 seats in the house, and some polls indicate he may not even lose more than a couple Senate seats. I think there is something like 98 contested Democrat seats in the house, but I think the only ones that will be lost will come from the traditionally Republican districts that flipped Democrat during the 2008 sweep (I'm not sure how many that it, to be honest).
Frankly, I'm not sure how you can look at what the Republicans did from 1996-2008 and then what they prevented Dems from doing from 2009 until now and vote for a Republican or Tea Partier. I guess a lot of Americans just really hate/fear gays, immigrants and abortion. Silly wedge issues...
And I've said it many times before, so I'll say it again: I think Obama will beat Romney in 2012. I don't have the faintest clue what will happen to the legislature in 2012 or 2014, though. I couldn't even pretend to make an educated guess. I would bet money on Obama facing and defeating Romney, however.
That would be interesting, actually... political betting. Sad that it may create conflicts of interest, but still a fun idea.
Of course, it's based on speculation.
ReplyDeleteI don't know. On nothing else but a hunch I think he's a one-termer.
But I reserve the right to revisit that since a lot can happen in the next two years.
All I know is his approach to economics is hardly unique.