2014-06-13

Thinking Outside The Box Is Not Hard

I must be the only one who doesn't think Brazil and Spain are outside favorites to win the World Cup. Not saying they can't. Of course they're capable. It's just that in the former, the team is beatable and the probabilities are against the latter given they've already won three major titles in a row. Even a back to back World Cup title is next to impossible having been achieved by just two countries - Italy and Brazil.

Out of how many countries who have participated in the World Cup? 103 or something?

In addition to the probabilities working against Spain one could see cracks in the armor leading up to the tournament. First, the defense is not what it once was. Ramos and Pique are simply easy to dissect as the Dutch showed today. Second, for a team heralded for its offensive prowess, they don't score too many goals. In their only cup title, the Spanish scored less goals than any champion in history. They have a lot of ball possession but it's often cynical possession for its own sake. It usually doesn't push forward and we saw that style is already stale. We also witnessed it in the Confederations Cup final where the offense simply sputtered  and prior to it, needing shoot-out to beat Italy (again). In a significant friendly against the Azzurri earlier this year, they got by on an error as the offense was again rather anemic.

Their striker option, in addition, is limited. Costa had a great year at Atletico but he may not be enough while Torres is an average striker. Spain has a glut of outstanding players who all play similar and this pay pose a problem for them against a tight compact Chile team that's brimming with confidence.

We (well, I did. The experts were too scared to take the dive) knew Holland and Chile were going to pose problems for Spain. The Netherlands played their typical fluid style of play mixed in with some rough play and embellishments. A team coached by Van Gaal should be ignored at one's own peril.


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